November 25, 2020

How I Correctly Predicted the Election Outcome

It has been an interesting couple of days, hasn’t it! My youngest daughter Kaitlyn and I have exchanged more texts in these last two days than we have in the rest of our lives combined! Like me, she is a political junkie, except maybe more so. Both of us are also into data… and there has been a lot of data flying about the last three days.

I make my living as a data analyst. When I am tuned into a topic I can make some very good predictions. I had some pretty strong thoughts about where the American Election might be headed, so I thought it would be interesting to put my thoughts in public before the polls closed.

Here is the tool that I used for the technical part of my determinations. The author is Éric Grenier, and I have been a fan of his for many years.

The tool has a cool feature in that you can use a slider to see the effect of a deviation from the latest polling numbers. The data has been updated ever so slightly from when I used it but what you see now is pretty close to what I used.

Here was my thinking. Donald Trump exceeded his polling numbers by 2.2% in 2016. The reasons the pollsters gave was that it was because they didn’t properly apportion a poll share to white uneducated males. They told us they had it fixed for 2020. The reason I am hearing this time round is the “secret Trump supporter”.

I thought it was simpler than either of those excuses that had been given pre and post the election.

1. Conservative voters always exclude their poll numbers. This is largely because older voters, who tend more conservative, have a better turnout on election night than younger voters.

2. Like 2016, Democrats did not have a candidate that they were enthused about.

My thinking went: If Trump could beat his polling by 2.2% in 2016, then he could likely beat it by 2.0 this year, and I adjusted the slider accordingly.

The state that really stood out as the swing state was Pennsylvania. At a 2.5 percent change in the slider, Trump would pick up Nevada, but still lose the election. At 3.0% was were Pennsylvania flipped into the Trump camp.

In my mind then Pennsylvania was key to winning the election this year, and so I made my first prediction:

1. Whoever wins Pennsylvania will win the election.

Note: as I write this, Pennsylvania is still in the Trump camp, but is trending strongly towards Biden. By sometime this morning it will be in the Biden camp, and he will win in by about 120,000 votes.

I didn’t think Trump would beat his polls by 3% and so I made my second prediction.

2. Biden will win Pennsylvania

At the time of writing this post, Biden was behind by 18,000 votes with 275,000 to count. He was winning 80% of the mail in ballots.

Based on my above analysis, I thought the election would be close, a lot of states would be close, and there would be recounts and lawsuits flying! So I felt pretty safe in making my third prediction:

3. The ultimate winner will not be decided for over a week.

I also knew that the mail in ballots would be a huge factor in this election, especially in how they were being counted after the fact in several key states. This would have the effect of Trump initially leading, and then losing ground as the mail in ballots were counted. And so I made my fourth prediction:

4. Trump will be ahead as of 11:00 p.m. (E.S.T.)

In fact he was! At 11:00 p.m. he was elected or leading in 278 electoral college ballots. By the time I went to bed that night Trump was elected or leading in 296! I must say I was tempted to second guess myself.

But I still thought that my original analysis was correct. And that was that if Trump couldn’t take Pennsylvania, some other states might be a toss up, but he would be maxing out at about 259 electoral college votes. That is why I had made my original fifth prediction:

5. Trump maxes out at 259 (or less) out of 270 electoral college votes.

So that is how I made my predictions.

What kind of outcome were you expecting? Have you been on a roller coaster of emotions over the last three days?

As usual your thoughts and comments are welcome. My Facebook friends managed to keep things civil despite their varied backgrounds. I hope we can do the same.

Comments

  1. for goodness sake WHEN will we finally KNOW Biden wins ?

    • Susan Dumbrell says

      I wake at 4am and go to bed at 2am.
      Please I need more sleep!!!!
      The world need a new US President
      Susan

    • Christiane says

      8:52 AM Eastern Standard Time
      CNN announces Biden takes the lead in Pennsylvania.

      The Blue Wall is blue again, Biden’s homeboys/girls stood up for him. Trump is on his way OUT when all the wrinkles are ironed out and we are free of his ‘crazy’ finally

      • Headless Unicorn Guy says

        We won’t be free of his crazy.
        He has 2 1/2 months to scorch-earth everything in revenge before he leaves. (“‘LL SHOW YOU! I’LL SHOW YOU!”)

        He retains his base of FANATICS who will become even more Fanatical with avenging their God against the Cabal and Deep State, Taking Back America from the Stolen Election. I fully expect some Oklahoma Cities, assassination attempts, and similar domestic terror attacks.

        Q-Anon and Trumpism will still be there, waiting in the winds to emerge once more. And Christians have shown themselves to be the most Fanatical of Trumpists.

        • Trump and his hordes are not going away. They won’t just be waiting in the wings, they will be laying the groundwork for the future.

          • Headless Unicorn Guy says

            With the added motivation of REVENGE.
            “Don’t get mad — GET EVEN! AND THEN SOME!”

          • thatotherjean says

            Trump’s hordes may not be going away, but i profoundly hope that Trump himself—and a fair number of his toadies and family members–will be going to prison, if the New York AG has her way.

          • Headless Unicorn Guy says

            After fiting the DISLOYAL Secretary of Defense, Trump is now appointing his LOYALISTS to high positions in the Pentagon. This looks like the setup for a military coup to stay in power.

            And the Christians will chorus “AAAAAA-MENNNNN!!! HE SHALL RULE THEM WITH A ROD OF IRON!!! AND HIS KINGDOM SHALL HAVE NO END!!!”

            Ten weeks to go on the continuous Trump Temper Tantrum…

    • Headless Unicorn Guy says

      For what it’s worth, morning drive-time today said that the most accurate predictions of this election didn’t come from any of all the polls but from the BOOKIES.

      From Professional Gamblers and Oddsmakers betting on the outcome.
      THAT was the most accurate prediction.
      Forget pollsters and algorithms, just ask Jimmy the Greek.

  2. I just want it to be over. Whoever wins the presidency, Trumpism will have won. The Republican Party and conservatism have learned from it that they can go the strongman route, and not suffer terribly negative political repercussions. Trumpian character and style will be the new template and model of the Right; it will never go back to even the pretense of bipartisanship. It will field more and more candidates for state and political offices that reflect that lesson. The Biden presidency will be crippled by the Republican controlled Senate, which I predict will impede Biden at every turn all the way from implementing any kind of Coronavirus stimulus/relief bill and appointing judges right down to confirmation of Cabinet members. The Biden presidency will be one term, and the Republican oligarchy will take dominating control after the next presidential election. Those are my predictions in the longer term. In the short term, I pray that there will not be mass civil unrest and violence in the streets of our country as we wait for the outcome of the election.

    • Correction: …it will field more and more candidates for state and federal office….

    • Or the Republican Party may split. Trumpism isn’t going to go away, but a lot of Republicans are tired, and what used to be called the “Tea Party” now has new energy with Trump.

      • There is noise from the Democratic Party that centrists are criticizing members further left for failure to produce Congressional wins in this election. There could be a kind of split happening there rather than among Republicans.

      • Adam Tauno Williams says

        Agree, this is not a win for Trumpism.

        1.) Trump will no longer be president. That allows the ability to reassemble the executive state even if nothing else.
        2.) A fractured Republican party is a huge opportunity. America has not had a CONSTRUCTIVE Conservative movement in ~25 years; but the foundations for such a thing (from Strongtowns to the Front Porch Republic) are out there if the Republican party could shed its white supremacist wing.

        • I respectfully disagree with you and Ted, though I hope I’m completely wrong and acknowledge that in my pessimism I may indeed by completely wrong. I expect the Republican Senate to amp up its obstructionism for the next four years, to not pay a political price for it in two years, and to successfully pin the blame on the Democrats that will set them up for a 2024 defeat. It will be scorched earth on the part of Moscow Mitch and his fellow oligarchs from here on. That’s why he’s been in such a good, laughing mood lately.

      • Yes, the Republican Party may “split” – if only because I imagine Trump will found his own TV network at the very least, and perhaps his own party. The majority of the current Republican base will follow him, leaving the muddling career sycophants little choice but to follow his lead. A rump “Never Trumper” Republican Party might remain, but will be relatively powerless. They don’t have a large enough base of support.

        The million dollar question is, what happens to the Democrats from here on out. I think Robert is right, it’s going to be four years of even more acrimonious gridlock than we’ve ever seen yet. And 2024 is going to make 2020 look like a pre-COVID picnic in the park. Will the Democrats have a strategy to deal with this?

    • Headless Unicorn Guy says

      75 years after the War, Germany still has problems with Neo-Nazis.
      This will be no different.

  3. It’s entirely possible GA will tip to Biden (by a whisker) and AZ will remain in Biden’s column.

    • Pellicano Solitudinis says

      Georgia’s flipped. Not necessarily a permanent state of affairs, but I find it grimly amusing that Georgia on the one hand has turned blue, even if it’s merely temporary, and on the other has delivered a flaming QAnon RWNJ to Congress.

      • She was elected to the House not by the whole state, but by voters in one very conservative district.

        • Pellicano Solitudinis says

          Yes, I’m aware of that. Still amuses me, though, and goodness knows I need a chuckle.

          • Headless Unicorn Guy says

            For a long time, there was a Mussolini in the Italian Parliament.
            A granddaughter of Il Duce, representing a small fringe Right “Fascism Lite” party.

      • If GA goes to Biden, it will be because of higher turnout in Atlanta. And the higher turnout in Atlanta may be due in no small part to these ladies…

        https://www.getyourbootytothepoll.com/

        WARNING – the video they made is extremely NSFW. And would probably make Burro’s head explode.

        • Burro (Mule) says

          After last night’s performance, I have moved to Eeyore/Tom Parker-level loathing of the current President I could care less if those girls led a Lady Godiva march to the polls I hope my vote and my daughters vote help flip this state.

          I didnt watch the video

          • Adam Tauno Williams says

            It has been interesting; I’ve heard from more than one Trump voter, only ~3 days after the election, that if they had a do-over they would NOT vote for him now.

            Strange times.

            • Burro (Mule) says

              See my reply downstream. I haven’t had a late-life conversion to Rainbow-Pornotopia-Egalitarian Diversity, but I do want something to calm us all down a couple of notches.

              Listening to the early morning drive AM radio, you’d think Pokie Beah, Ray Ray, Tyrone, and Daneesha had barricaded themselves in the Fulton County Election Commission offices brandishing Sharpies on the ballots like switchblades.

              I don’t need that. Not in this climate.

            • The man is a horrible winner, and he’s a horrible loser, and he’s pretty despicable in moments in between. As I said yesterday or the day before, he appears to not have a gracious bone in his body.

              “Yes, but we LOVE him as president!” (Say way too many Christians)

              • The Evangelical Trump vote was only slightly less this time around.

                Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me.

                • well, a lot of the hubris and the hooting and the hollering was done by ‘good people’ thinking that they had a ‘champion’ in Trump

                  when in truth all he was was a little boy bully on steroids, self-centered, preening, and filled with contempt for others

                  now the folks who gloried in him will need to accept their role in his rise and his fall, not that they were ‘directly involved’ in his shenanigans;
                  but something drastically worse:

                  they ‘permitted’ Trump ‘to be Trump’ so they didn’t have to be, they ‘let him’ do their dirty work, and now they are left without their ‘source of power’ that permitted them to gloat over their ‘enemies’ so they must find another fuehrer or retreat back into their ‘good person’ covers and ‘wait’ until another bully emerges worse that the Trump

                  soul-destroying is to be feared, to become a toady for a cowardly bully who hurts little children is to be feared, to grow silent in the face of the torment of others is to be feared, and when ‘dear leader’ has gone the way of all tyrants,
                  the folks who ‘needed’ his cruelty and his bluster to feel ’empowered’ are left ‘abandoned’ and looking for another ‘annointed one’ who is meaner and more aggressive and offers them an opportunity to express their own contempt for the ones they see as the ‘others’

                  trumpism will continue because it was a shell that was worn over an ancient evil that seeks control over others at all costs – soon comes another ‘fuehrer’, UNLESS some REALLY ‘good people’ develop a backbone to say ‘not this time, not our country, not now’

                  I hope these ‘really good people’ stand up against the hatred to come. For the sake of their souls and their honor. Even one person can make a difference against the darkness.

                  • Headless Unicorn Guy says

                    And one certainty is that this time, The Christians will NOT be among those “really good people”. Just the opposite.

              • Headless Unicorn Guy says

                Remember the woman who became a Grumble in The Great Divorce?

                Well, Donny the Golden Boy is the same. He has grown from a selfish egotistical man to become Selfishness and Egotism animating a body.

                And to four out of five American Christians, “HE Is LOOOOOOORD!”

        • Headless Unicorn Guy says

          Speaking of Atlanta, has anybody heard how their (female black) mayor is doing? After her public appearance when the BLM protests turned riot in downtown Atlanta and news of her contracting COVID, we haven’t heard much from her out here on the opposite coast.

          • Burro (Mule) says

            Missing in action. Shes been keeping a low profile She doesn’t have a squeaky clean reputation .

          • thatotherjean says

            Mayor Bottoms? She was on with Rachel Maddow (remotely) a couple of nights ago, talking about counting the vote in Atlanta, and how carefully it was being done. She seemed to be OK. Rachel herself, though, is in quarantine at her home, because she came into contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19.

    • It’s being reported that Biden has taken the lead by just over 900 votes in GA. If that holds, I guess it means the state has been Blue-pilled. That’s a small victory anyway for the balance of power, anyway.

      • If Ga goes for Biden that will be extraordinary! (I’m from there.)

        If an old crook like David Purdue could be defeated in the runoff I won’t be able to contain myself. My neighbors will call the police for sure.

    • Biden’s lead in AZ still holding (~47k votes).

    • Georgia is iffy due to oversees military ballots

      • Given how he’s treated the military, those ballots may not yield the results Trump needs.

        • Today at 12:38pm Trump tweeted,

          Where are the missing military ballots in Georgia? What happened to them?

          So at least he thinks he wants them. Or doesn’t, and is just using them as leverage. But are they really missing? Stay tuned.

        • I’ve been thinking the same thing. But, if Adam is right, many Americans don’t pay attention to the details when it comes to political happenings, and that may be just as true for folks in the military overseas as here.

  4. Susan Dumbrell says

    Off topic. Sorry
    I am having an ultrasound on Tuesday.
    Upper abdomen.
    I so need a solution to my pain.
    Maybe gall bladder.
    Susan

  5. senecagriggs says
    • The only attempt to “steal the election” so far is being made by the POTUS and his friends. He sent his toady Giuliani with a lawyer goon squad to Philadelphia day before yesterday to prevent the count of my and my wife’s mail-in ballots. That gambit seems to have failed.

      • I want to know when Giuliani went over to the dark side. I mean, at one point I kinda respected the man, thought he was a good leader.

        He hitched his wagon to a man who’s led him astray and pretty much ruined any respect outside the Trump circle.

        • Headless Unicorn Guy says

          Yeah. As Mayor of NYC after 9/11, he did a bang-up job and won a lot of respect.

          Now he’s just another of Trump’s shyster/mouthpieces.

          • My opinion of him was not good before 9/11 or after it. It was just during those terrible days in September of that year that he stood head-and-shoulders above everyone else, brave and calm and steady. What he has fallen to now is sad to see.

            • As someone said not too long after 9/11.

              Who knew that New York City needed a paranoid control freak for a mayor for a time.

            • Headless Unicorn Guy says

              A pic of Guiliani that’s been making the rounds is him gesturing in front of a wall of TRUMP posters at some sort of outdoor media event.

              He looks like Goebbels doing the warmup act at Nuremberg.

    • Pellicano Solitudinis says

      PSA: this article is quite sweary. I’m not fussed, but some might be.

      I’m not sure why it’s so suspicious that inner-city postal votes skew so heavily Democrat when a) inner cities *do* actually favour progressive candidates b) Trump was actively discouraging postal voting.

    • There is no other hand in that article, only a ham-fisted attempt at sleight-of-hand.

    • How come it’s always the losers who claim the other side cheated?

      And if there WAS cheating going on, let’s be equal opportunity and say that BOTH sides probably did it.

      Geez.

      • Headless Unicorn Guy says

        Do you remember the Election Night scene from the classic movie “Citizen Kane” when media mogul Kane runs for some public office?

        It’s the newsroom in one of the newspapers he owns.. The staff is round-the-clock preparing TWO special editions depending on which way the election goes.
        The Armageddon-sized headline of one says KANE ELECTED!
        The other says VOTE FRAUD PROVEN!

  6. Thank you for the kind thoughts
    Susan

    We do lots of praying in our Imonk family
    We will miss this next year

  7. Adam Tauno Williams says

    >What kind of outcome were you expecting?

    Basically this. I suspected the swing in Georgia would be a bit stronger.

    Yet I’m constantly baffled at how bad America is at everything, simply everything. Vote counting delayed by running out of toner for a printer, vote counting delayed by a broken pipe in the ceiling,… We really are a nation of fumbling twits.

    > Have you been on a roller coaster of emotions over the last three days?

    No coaster, pretty steady sadness. There are such immense problems to solve, urgent problems, and again what we have is a nearly debilitating temper tantrum. And for ~50% of the people, that’s Ok. I wish I could leave.

  8. XX
    Appreciated.

  9. Susan Dumbrell says

    This election is like kids on a journey “Are we there yet?”

    • Adam Tauno Williams says

      With the kids constantly asking that as you sit in gridlock on a 7 lane highway on a hot afternoon.

  10. Biden has won and I hope the Democrats win the Senate and be in full control of Congress and Presidency. The slim Republican majority in the Senate will be wiped out by the Romney, Collins and other weak Republicans so it is best to have the Democrats be in full control so people will hold them accountable, good or bad. We shall see how it plays out. I predict based on his past Biden will be a disaster the few months is still viable and Harris is the front face. Gas is $5.11 a gallon average in Europe and $3.11 average in California. The American voter has elected to hurt its own interest. Winners of the election are China, Russia and Iran. Look at who Wall Street, big money trust fund liberals, our tech masters and globalist backed with their money. This was the last hurrah for traditional American conservatives. There will be no “turning” back as the legalization of the illegal alien population in this country coupled with no border control and with family reunification as the main goal of our immigration policy will insure Democrat victories forever. Trump voters are like Boxer , the horse, in Animal Farm.
    Personally, if you are over 65 like me, you will be fine. Young people , under 50 , will see the results of this election. So good for Biden, the people have spoken so let us move on. Due to my age and financial status I am not personally at risk but I feel bad about the future of the nation. Trump at least did put a 4 year hold on the inevitable course of decline of America as a viable economic, military and cultural world lead, it will take about 30 years but Communist China will be the dominant force in the world. So that is where we are. Personally, I will retreat from active or even any involvement in political affairs as I am finished. So good for the progressive wing that got a senile 77 year old man elected with a most unqualified VP and the mystery is ?, who are the puppet masters? Again Biden won so let us move on. It will be bad, but it is what it is. I also predict the Covid 19 will recede from the headlines, the lockdown will not happen , to sum up the swamp and globalist won. Congratulations.

    • Put a 4 year hold? I’ve read what other Western (European and Australian) observers have had to say about the matter. The majority opinion is that he did not pause it – he accelerated it.

    • Tom Parker says

      Dan it is so sad you feel the way you do IMO–So much negativity.. Are you really finished?

      • Adam Tauno Williams says

        > Are you really finished?

        No. Ample evidence those declaring themseleves opt’d-out never opt-out.

        • Tom Parker says

          Wouldn’t that be lying?

          • Adam Tauno Williams says

            It is Rhetoric, the notion of Honesty is rarely applied to Rhetoric.

            “I’m taking my ball and going home” is more an expression of frustration than of intention.
            It is an invitation for someone to say “please, don’t. we like your ball, stay.”

        • They certainly are not finished.

    • Covid-19 is *not* receding from the headlines any time soon. Most people probably didn’t notice because everyone was watching the election, but we broke 100,000 cases/day for the first time this week.

      And, at least according to the IHME model, in the best case we’re looking at a steadily climbing death rate until at least mid-January. At a bare minimum we’re looking at another quarter-million dead this winter – so, even in the best case scenario, the pandemic’s darkest days are still ahead of us. And, if the kind of hopelessness that we’re currently seeing in the Midwest spreads and people just give up on containing the virus, it could be much, much worse.

    • Adam Tauno Williams says

      > Gas is $5.11 a gallon average in Europe and $3.11 average in California

      Let’s hope we can get gasoline to $5/gal everywhere.

      > the legalization of the illegal alien population in this country

      Are are not “illegal” if you legalize them!

      > military and cultural world lead,

      I support ceasing to be a world military and cultural leader.

      • Let’s hope we can get gasoline to $5/gal everywhere.

        No thank you. I’m living on roughly half the pay I earned prior to the Great Recession of a decade ago. And my health care costs are also out of hand. I’m going to be broke pretty soon if this keeps up. I just turned 61 and would rather not spend my remaining years, however long that may be, in poverty.

        • Pellicano Solitudinis says

          If you lived in Europe (or Australia, Canada or New Zealand, for that matter), it would be more expensive to run your car. But you’d also have better public transport and affordable health care.

    • Clay Crouch says

      dan, would you like some cheese with that whine?

      • Tom Parker says

        I was going to over him some WHINE myself. Clay, you beat me to it. Bless his heart.

        • Guys, I admit I came here today to vent. Nothing will change what has and is going to happen. I am trying to at least get a feeling on why intelligent people believe that Biden was the answer other than he was not Trump. At least Adam above stated he is okay with some things this election will result in. Oh yea, the whine with cheese bit is very innovative, very astute

          • Burro (Mule) says

            Biden is no answer. He’s more like an “uh” pause in the conversation, giving you the chance to catch your breath.

            I voted for Biden because even though I am 1) anti-war 2) pro-life 3) pro-immigration-reform I had the distinct feeling that I was being played for a mark, that he never really wanted to be President, just famous and loved. In the four years he was President, he showed no inclination to actually learn the job. Trump never had an ideology, a lodestone for his decisions. Biden is pro all-the-financial-pharmaceutical-defense-contractor special interests. He will at least be predictable.

            • Burro as surprising as this may be for you to hear, I think you are absolutely correct. Two wars are about to break out. One in the Republican party between the Trump looney right and the trad Repubs who will attempt to regain control. The other between the “Left” (I despise this term because we have no real Left in the European sense) and the establishment Demos. Who will win?

              America is fundamentally conservative but not crazy conservative. But the demographics are changing. Interesting times.

              But the most important thing is that the incompetent fool will go.

              • Burro (Mule) says

                Actually, that is the least important thing. The really important things will be the rebuilding of the two major political parties. It is clear to everyone that they aren’t sensitive to the interests of anyone who doesn’t have the money to purchase a five-figure dinner ticket. Maybe that’s as it should be; the price of Empire. I would, I think, prefer a more personal government and form of governing; smaller, more local, but that would come at a steep price in comfort and convenience.

                If I am going to continue to enjoy the fruits of Empire, it is apparent that I will have to either accept 1) more authoritarian rule, which is not something I’m averse to. Hierarchy is fine if it is constructed properly or 2) bi-ennial periods of chaos and acrimony as the chaotic will of the people, shaped at the present by a larger number of influencers than ever before, makes itself felt.

                • Ok you will submit to more authoritarian political rule but you would shrink back from economic measures that would make such a hard fisted rule unnecessary. Correct me if I’m wrong.

                  Yes hierarchy is fine if the people designing it are fine. But the question is how to keep them fine!

                  For every Trajan how many monsters?

              • Burro (Mule) says

                Stephen –

                What do you see as the hallmarks of this “looney” right? We have no real right in the European sense either. It tends to be ‘blud und boden’ and deeply anti-Semitic. Who would you consider a responsible conservative?

                • I agree we have no real “Right” or “Left”. But we are forced to speak colloquially to be understood.

                  I judge conservatives by their response to Trump. An honorable example of the species would be Larry Hogan the governor Of Maryland. I sincerely hope people like him can wrest control of the Republican party from the Trumpers.

    • –> “I also predict the Covid 19 will recede from the headlines…”

      Spoken like a true narcissistic “All about America” American. Look at the global news. This is NOT American-specific! This is global, and not going away any time soon.

      • Come on, Rick! You know that the Globalists who control the Deep State in America also control the rest of the world! (and the solar system for that matter — you know they’re on Mars, right?)! Try to catch up!

      • Headless Unicorn Guy says

        –> “I also predict the Covid 19 will recede from the headlines…”

        “Trump tweeted it,
        I Believe it,
        THAT SETTLES IT!”

    • Dan, your comment reads like a Doctor Bronner’s Liquid Soap label.

  11. Eeyore, Other countries put their own self interest first so of course they opposed Trump, that is now a moot point. It will be business as usual with Biden the figurehead of the globalist agenda. Most Biden voters really have no idea about his policies, he was just not Trump. Where are the riots Why did business in most major city board up? Was it the stupid Trump voters they were worried about or the pro Biden supporters who will told to stand down, as Biden won. Again watch how quickly the virus disappears from the front page.. It is telling, is it not?

    • Did you even read the article? They realize that *collective action for collective interests* is the best way. Every person/nation for itself is a surefire path to chaos and conflict – which is only in the interests of those who care for nothing but power.

    • It is not.

  12. Tom Parker, just a final day of venting but I accept events as they happen. I do believe that this is a sea level change that will profoundly change American political, social and cultural landscape forever. To many here that is a good thing but to many mostly older Americans they cannot comprehend that attitude but it is now the majority. The media has been corrupted into a progressive cheering section, the internet controls a large portion of public information and are now into censorship. We are indeed into a brave new world but as an old guy all I can say is get off my lawn. Young people will not know the difference as they will grow up in a world controlled by a few elites with a bone of democracy voting to placate the population. It is the ebb and flow of history on an accelerated scale. The nation is headed were California is now as far as government agenda and it will go downhill from then on. Now this is my opinion and it is negative but it is also truthful. Tom Parker, what is finished is the faith and trust I had for over many years in our institutions such as the press, FBI, CIA, courts, government, and leadership in most arenas. So allow me to vent and rest assured the progressive side has won the battle now and has won the war. Congratulations.

    • I don’t suppose it occurred to you to actually talk to those young people and see where *they* are coming from?

    • Come to think of it, have you ever considered that your opinions might, to whatever degree, be incorrect at all?

      • Eeyore, of course I could be incorrect but based on the issues I do not think so. Trump’s energy policies for example, we will now be once again hostage to Middle East , Russia will be enriched as will Iran, China will be a main purchaser of oil. As America rejoins the Paris Accords we will kill our economy, as others accelerate their power. I could be incorrect? Maybe Biden will build nuclear plants and keep Trump energy policy to soften the hard landing but I do not think so. Oil prices will rise . Pricing policies and restrictions on energy use will also drive up energy cost. Our economy will suffer hitting working and middle class people the hardest as the top 10 percent on the top will be able to afford whatever the cost is as they do now and the bottom 20 percent will feel no effect as they are supported anyway by the system , so they have no skin in the game. Just one example, I could be incorrect. Tell me where I am incorrect?

        • Energy independence was never going to happen for us long term. All opening more public land for drilling will do is ruin more of our environment, make the big business types you dislike even richer, and perhaps delay the inevitable for another decade. Trump’s presidency has been one long binge of denial of all of our modern unpleasant truths – and apparently 46ish% of the population wanted even more Egyptian river-ism. But shutting our eyes and ears to the inevitable will only make it harsher in the end.

    • Clay Crouch says

      dan, you only have yourself and your fellow Trump supporters to blame. Your support of a megalomaniac who’s only strong suits are lying and fear mongering has done great damage to our country. He has a gleefully divided this nation by turning us on each other. He has courted and emboldened the most violent segments of our society. I’ll say this as kindly as I know how, you have been duped by a con man. But you can take some comfort in the fact that you are not alone. The irony of it is that Trump could’ve used your vote in Georgia. It’s a shame it was wasted in Florida.

      • Clay, I do not blame anyone . You may have that opinion of Trump and many do but the average Trump voters really support Trump on the issues. Progressives will never admit that and yes, Biden won the election as it was all anti Trump not pro Biden. Again, I am okay with it, I am just doing a final vent job , trying to wrap my head around the thinking of a middle class Biden voter. Taxes will go up, energy prices will go up, China will grow in strength and influence, globalist will have free hand in making our trade policies that will and per hollow out the American economy, illegal aliens will pour across the border, family reunification will change the voting pattern forever in America, Puerto Rico may become a state perhaps the Supreme Court will be packed. Police and law enforcement will be under attack with funding and severe oversight. Local zoning will be weakened and our foundations changed .

        • Being president is so much more than helping set various “policies”. It’s about being a leader and role model, and has a tremendous impact directly on society. And you only exacerbate our divide by your “battle” and “war” rhetoric. We are literally all in this together. Your traditional us vs. them mentality has completely fractured us and is the greatest threat to us improving as a country. And no need to play the victim card in all this, as if some great injustice has been committed in light of us moving on to literally anyone (in this case Biden) after the radioactive nuclear fallout disaster that has been Trump.

        • Clay Crouch says

          dan, I understand exactly what you are going through. We’ve been living it for the last 4+ years. While I see Trump for what he really is, I will never get my head around Trump supporters. Some of the things you mentioned might happen. They might very well happen even if Trump is re-elected. The Chicken Little schtick isn’t helpful, ask me how I know. I wish you peace in what has been and is, for ALL of us, unsettling times.

    • Who caused you to lose faith-It absolutely should be Trump? He is the bearer of thousands of lies and you and others believe them all! I used to try and be nice to people like you, but I don’t have the patience nor the tolerance for such non-thinking people. You and others like you and especially Trump have had four years to set this country back decades.

      I don’t generally do this, but my conversation with you is over now and for the future. I shall not waste any more time with you. You are a very sad person!

      • This comment is to Dan.

      • Tom Parker, Please do not waste any more time with some one who presents facts and has a viewpoint you disagree with. I appreciate that I will have have to read any more of your comments today as I was hoping for some constructive dialogue. I am sure you voted on the issues and not emotion. Honestly, you do not add much to the dialogue other than simple thoughts.

  13. Mike, I appreciate all the math and analytical thinking you put into your prediction, but wouldn’t it have been simpler just to say, “Based on how 2020 has been going so far, what is the most likely way for the election to play out?” 🙂

  14. Eeyore, I do not have to talk to Democrat voters to know what they voted for in this election, they voted to end fracking, begin a Green New Deal agenda and give Russia and other oil producing nations an economic and military advantage in energy. Democrat voters voted to support free health care to illegal aliens and not to enforce our immigration laws. Democrat voters voted to vote for a party that supports policies that condone recent events in Portland, Seattle, NYC and other progressive political city. They voted for a party that will abolish local control over zoning to change the demographics of neighborhoods. They voted for a party that will eventually do away with private party insurance choice and put us on a one payer path. They voted for a mentally declining 48 year old political retail politician who has enriched his family and himself in a corrupt manner. In other words, the issues are the issues. Honestly most people on both sides can not or will not have a civil discourse on the issues, it gets down to sound bites and insults. The telling aspect of this election is the amount of money the Wall Street tycoons, the tech billionaires , the trust fund ultra rich and the international companies poured into the Democrat Party across the board. The Australia mag article is now moot as Trump is gone, it is back to business as usual. What revelation would a young person reveal to me that I am not aware of?

    • Clay Crouch says

      Dan, wrong again, but as usual, never in doubt!

    • Adam Tauno Williams says

      > They voted for a party that will abolish local control over zoning to
      > change the demographics of neighborhoods.

      YES! I am a Democrat. And ABSOLUTELY YES I voted specifically for candidates who will roll back “local control”.

      “local control” sounds great on paper; in reality it is seeding control over land use from property owners to non-elected and unrepresentative bodies. “local control” in practice is anti-Conservative AND anti-Progressive. My neighborhood is a neighborhood not an HOA.

      Will that change the demographics? Maybe, maybe not. Also, demographics of neighborhoods change all the time. Stasis is the abnormality created by nondemocratic over regulation.

      • Burro (Mule) says

        My HOA is more coercive than the Stasi, and all I wanted to do was grow corn.

        I used to feel uncomfortable about Corey Booker’s plan to use public housing to forcefully colonize the suburbs. I see what the real objection is now.

        • Adam Tauno Williams says

          > and all I wanted to do was grow corn

          I am chair of my neighborhood association. If someone gave you grief for growing corn in my ‘hood I’d have your back 110%! Ugh – I hate that kind of nonsense.

      • If the federal government mandates and enforces public housing in high income and affluent communities as well as working class neighborhoods I am all for it. That will not happen, the rich and powerful are immune , they have their own security and walls to keep the 98% percent in their place. If the Corey Brooker proposals become law , we will just become a third world nation a few years earlier. At least it will slow down illegal alien flows as America will be no better than most other countries. The other winner today is Hunter and James Biden, well actually the entire Biden family plus the FBI lawbreakers who are now completely off the hook. Democracy dies in the open.

        • Adam Tauno Williams says

          > they have their own security and walls to keep the 98% percent in their place

          Maybe, but they don’t care enough.

          Survey after survey finds that a strong majority of people across the spectrum have few to no objections to development or “A”ffordable housing.

          This is a fight about dismantling instruments of minoritarian control
          It is about disempowering a **small** cohort of “Neighborhood Defenders”.

          The loudest voice in the room can be mistaken for a majority when its not even close.

    • Yep end fracking and next…the Gulag.

    • Clay Crouch says

      dan, I’m amazed at your ability to discern the thoughts and reasons of 74,000,000+ voters. Now that’s a Superpower. Trump could have used you on his team.

  15. I genuinely don’t get it — how did so many people finally “just” come to this realization?? Burro — the last-light-performance Trump is the exact same Trump that he’s been his entire life, literally nothing has changed.

    • (oops — meant to be a response to ATW at 9:05 am)

      • Adam Tauno Williams says

        > how did so many people finally “just” come to this realization?

        Not hard to understand.

        Many people do not pay any attention to what is happening. This is something wonkys get wrong a-l-l the time. Many, maybe even most, people have not the faintest idea what is happening politically.

        And in there defense it is not easy to know. There is a mountain of background knowledge required to parse – in any meaningful way – any legitimate news story.

        • Yep, yep, yep.

        • Well, if you can’t have an informed and engaged citizenry, you can’t have a democracy (or a republic for that matter).

          “We have a Republic, Madam – if you can keep it.” – B. Franklin

        • Many people do not pay any attention to what is happening. This is something wonkys get wrong a-l-l the time. Many, maybe even most, people have not the faintest idea what is happening politically.

          And in there defense it is not easy to know. There is a mountain of background knowledge required to parse – in any meaningful way – any legitimate news story.

          My opinion of Trump has not changed since he started popping up on CNBC back in the 80s. He’s a con man, thief, and all around arsehole.

          There were the bankruptcies back then and the entire Atlantic City thing where he sold his interests to new stockholders, took the millions from the suckers (err investors), took millions in management fees, then walked away with their stock worthless. Poor suckers.

          His business brilliance was a mirage crafted via his Apprentice show.

          And his racial bias was also there along with his moral character. But apparently these were hidden from most people who didn’t live through his nonsense in NYC.

          It was all there. People just didn’t want to see it.

    • Burro (Mule) says

      It was only recently (since the St John’s church incident) that I realized that Trump’s defective character and blantant manipulation of him marks was more important than his policy stands. When a man is like that, you realize that everything he does is just accidental.

      Make no mistake. I would have gleefully cast my vote for a real fascist like Tom Cotton.

      • Apparently you were a few weeks ahead of John Piper’s realization of the same thing, as he articulated pretty well (I thought so, anyway) last week in why he wouldn’t be voting for a man of such defective character.

        • John Piper has always opposed Trump, he just decided to write that piece because the election was coming up

          • Given the evangelical reaction, it seemed to come as a surprise to most folks then.

          • Headless Unicorn Guy says

            And all references to the Pious Piper (including all records of his speaking at their Convocations) has been scrubbed from Liberty U’s history.

            “doubleplusungood ref doubleplusunperson”.

  16. The on going ballot count is only going to lead many Trump voters to believe this is a rigged election, as many already do. In the future all mail in ballots ought to be received in time to be counted on Election Day. Make a deadline at least 7 business days before the election to mail in a ballot to avoid the crap we are going through now.

    My own political prediction, if Republicans hold on to the Senate they will win more seats in both the Senate and the House in two years. If they don’t who knows, I fully believe the Democrats will do whatever they can to ensure they don’t lose control again

    • Not sure how you have an election day of November 4th, say, but only count votes received before October 26th, say.

      And any process you use is going to allow people who lose to cry “Foul!”

      • Why not? It is just a deadline for mail in. If Election Day is the fourth I can’t show up and vote on the 5th and vote. If the deadline is known then there shouldn’t be a problem. And then votes can be counted and no one can complain about ballots being “found”.

        • Oh, they’d find something equally fictitious to complain about, and spin conspiracy theories around.

          • Again, that’s not a reason to not have a deadline so votes can be counted in a timely manner

            • It is the states that make the rules regarding how the election is conducted. Just try to get them all to do the same thing, and good luck, because: states’ rights! That’s the mantra of conservatives.

        • Clay Crouch says

          Jon, mailing your vote is the equivalent of casting your vote in person. You may show up at a polling place and cast your vote on Election Day (Nov. 3), but depending on the method of counting, your particular vote might not be counted until the next day or later. Why do you get the privilege of having your vote count while someone who mails their vote doesn’t?

          • They would get the privilege, just vote on time, no problem. Right now a large number of people are convinced that Democrats waited for Election Day results and are now using illegitimate mail in ballots to cheat the system. By having all mail in votes received and counted by the end of Election Day you take away that possibility. Sure people will find something to complain about, but I don’t know why people object to something that would just help maintain the integrity of the process.

            • Clay Crouch says

              Jon, I can’t fix your faulty reasoning. Take it up with your state’s lawmakers.

              • You have yet to point to anything faulty. A simple change that could make the process more efficient and less open to charges of fraud, but yeah, it’s crazy to suggest having an earlier deadline for mail in ballots. Why, people might have to put an envelope in the mail a few days earlier than before, we really can’t handle a burden like that.

                • Let’s say what you propose is a good idea. How do you propose to get all the states to agree to it? The legislators have to change the rules. What is the status of the rules in your state?

                  And what of American military ballots from a foreign country? Or others living in a foreign country?

            • Clay Crouch says

              Jon, as to your fellow conspiracy nuts, you need to point your finger at Trump and tell him to put up some evidence or shut up.

            • Jon

              Here in North Carolina we don’t do it your way. We allow mail in ballots and if it was received by Nov 3 it was counted by the 4th.

              The difference here is we process the ballots and count them every week or more often as needed but seal the results. And with a state wide uniformity of machine readable paper ballots all precincts were “in” by dawn the next morning. All that was left were provisional ballots and mailed ballots that were post marked by Nov 3 but had not arrived.

              The problems have been solved.

              But if you allow any kind of mail in and say they can’t be TOUCHED until election day you will get long delays. No way around it.

          • I think that’s right, Clay.

    • Who would have ever thought of a rigged election before Trump came along. He wants to win if the has to cheat, I firmly do not believe that is the case for the Democrats. As of August 27, 2020, Trump has told over 22,000 lies in 1, 316 days in office. What former President has ever lied this much? Does it ever bother Trump supporters that he is a habitual liar-especially Christians?

      The election is rigged only if he loses-I get it. And they call Democrats snow flakes-what in the world are Republicans whining today because it looks like he will lose.

      Heaven only knows what his concession speech will be like.

      • An extended ad for the new Trump TV channel. Because Fox stabbed him in the back.

      • There will be no concession speech.

        • Philadelphia’s mayor, Jim Kenney, may have said it best, sometime this morning:

          “What the president needs to do is, frankly, put his big boy pants on, acknowledge that he lost, and congratulate the winner.”

          It’s already on Wikipedia. 🙂

        • It wouldn’t be worth listening to even if there were one. This is Trump we’re talking about.

        • Headless Unicorn Guy says

          An announcement that “Missiles Have Been Launched”?

      • thatotherjean says

        Concession speech? What makes you think he’s going to concede? It would be the polite thing to do, but it’s not necessary. When it’s all done and dusted, Trump will be out of office on January 20, 2021, at 12:01 pm, whether he formally concedes or not.

    • Wouldn’t solve anything. Pennsylvania had many votes in earlier than election day. The problem was that the Republican-controlled legislature in the state wouldn’t allow any counting of those votes until election day itself.

      The voting system could be more efficient, but it’s not broken. It still works. Only when it’s actively hindered or subject of attempted sabotage from the outside does it have some difficulty continuing to be efficient. Right now all of those external hindrances are coming from one party and particularly its president.

      Given the amount of unrest and division, the voting system itself has been remarkably stable and well managed this election and has managed to keep its own integrity intact. We should be thankful for that.

      • Iain Lovejoy says

        This is nonsense. Counting postal votes has taken so long because quite a few states (with Republican legislators in particular) have quite deliberately passed laws *preventing* election officials from counting and processing postal votes before election day, precisely in order that they be counted late and last so that Republicans can then de-legitimise them. It wouldn’t have mattered when people posted them. States where they are allowed to start counting them as they come in have had no particular delays. I think only North Carolina allows ballots particularly late.
        Also, another reason for late arriving ballots is DeVoy’s quite deliberate messing with USPS to delay them. He is presently refusing to comply with a court order to search for any missing ballots he has failed to get delivered.
        It takes a spectacular level of hypocrisy to deliberately delay postal ballots as much as possible then complain about those same delays as a reason not to count them.
        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-13/when-swing-states-can-start-counting-millions-of-mail-in-ballots

      • The process and time it would take to receive and count this vote was clearly explained weeks ago in the media, and it’s been going just as they said it would. The one drag that is a wild card are the POTUS’ frivolous suits to stop the vote counting; who knows how much time they will take. So far they haven’t been very successful.

  17. I have a comment in purgatory

    • Burro (Mule) says

      I do too.

      • Clay Crouch says

        What do you consider the purpose of purgatory to be? Where I live, it’s skiing.

        • Adam Tauno Williams says

          > purpose of purgatory

          Both Heaven and Hell have cumbersome vetting processes which makes purgatory a logistical necessity.

        • Apparently the purpose is to find more votes for the dems

          • They’re legitimate votes, they should be found if they were lost, and counted.

          • They were votes legally and properly cast. It’s never been 100% true that elections were always settled on election night. The TV calls have always been projections.

          • Isn’t there a chance, almost 50% chance at that, given current popular vote is almost 50-50, that the votes will be Rep? I mean, why fight it unless you know the votes aren’t going to go your way, which means you’re fighting strictly because you know they won’t go your way, which means it’s not about the voted being illegitimate but just because you know they’ll hurt you.

            • Why fight reforms that would make cheating harder unless you plan to cheat? And these late ballots aren’t going 50-50, more like 80 or 90 to 10 or 20

      • Adam Tauno Williams says

        Ditto!

    • Back in purgatory

  18. Both the town and the practice have the same goal, to make money

  19. Okay, Mike Bell… it’s all fine and good you were able to prophesize the election results using some sort of statistical voodoo, but the real question is…

    Can you use the same method to somehow predict when my Seattle Mariners will win the World Series? Or maybe even, “Just make the playoffs”…???

    • Michael Bell says

      I think you mean the Kraken. I don’t believe there is another sport worth watching in Seattle. I even hope to take in a game someday!

  20. Imonk Community, good luck and appreciate the opportunity to post here. I wish all the best and hope that the Biden administration is successful for the country. I had a chance to vent, which I did but will have to find my own peace with events in this world. I have run my own race so far as best I can and that is all we all can do in this life. I realize that my intrusive posting here serves no good purpose so I do offer a big thank you to the keeper of this site and hope all the commenters do well in their personal lives. Thanks to CM

    • I hope the venting helped. We all need to vent at times. You’ve seen many of us vent here over the past 4 years as well. It has helped me, for sure.

  21. Armed QAnoners detained by police outside a Philly vote counting center. Maybe they intended to stop the vote counting…

    • Bomb threats near Philly Convention Center where votes are being counted. Somebody really doesn’t want those votes counted. Has anybody checked on the whereabouts of the POTUS lately?

  22. My last thoughts on this post:
    It looks like Joe Biden will be president unless something drastic happens. I have doubts that he won fair and square, but if he is the president I will pray for him. I will pray for his health and protection. I will pray that he governs wisely, that he can help unite this country in a good way, and that we can have peace in our country. I will also pray that conservative Christians, while not abandoning the political process, will quite putting too much hope in it. At best it has become a major distraction from our main calling, and at worst it has become an idol. So congratulations if you got the results you wanted, consolations if you didn’t, and as soon as this thing is decided, prepare to start hearing about 2024.

    • Could you give an example of one documented incident that was not “fair and square” during this election, and that was widespread or pervasive? I mean, what leads you to believe the election has been rigged, besides social media rumors?

      • Tom Parker says

        Robert, I agree with you. Proof please, Jon or quit with the whining or unproven conspiracies. If Biden wins, Republicans will never accept the verdict of the people. Seems to me Al Gore-a Democrat, was a pretty good sport back in 2000 for the good of the country. He could have probably whined about the 2000 Election not being fair, but I do not remember this about him. T on the other hand has never “lost” anything and would never do anything for the good of the United States. All he cares about is himself. He is a very poor sport IMO.

      • Robert, why of everything I said in the post did you focus on this? Look it up if you want to it’s not that hard to find.
        The Federalist has two or three stories about it. You may not believe them, but they will at least give you an idea.

        • Is there something wrong with focusing on this?

          Okay, I’ll check out The Federalist, if they don’t have a paywall.

        • I read two articles in The Federalist centered around the experiences of a couple of Republican poll watching volunteers in predominately Democratic precincts in MI. There was a lot of speculation on the part of these volunteers about why certain things were happening that seemed suspicious to them, but no hard evidence of wrongdoing. I wasn’t there, you weren’t there, we can’t know if the perceptions of these people were accurate or not. That is up to the courts to determine based on the evidence brought before them by Trump’s lawyers, but I don’t even know if the people quoted in these articles were brought before the court by Trump’s legal team. We have to trust the courts to plumb these matters, just as we did in the Bush-Gore election, and that was one in which I feel that Bush did not win “fair and square” but was handed the presidency by the SCOTUS.

          • Burro (Mule) says

            The Philadelphia article was more of the same, except with a not very charming story about a minor hoodlum involved at the fringes of the political system. Heavy on insinuation, short on genuine accusations. No names named. ‘You know how those big-city Democrats are; wink-wink-hunch-hunch’.

            It reminded me of a high school football game;

            “Their players cheated!”
            “So? Ours cheated too!”
            “Yeah, but ours got caught!”

            This kind of stuff was all over Outrage AM radio yesterday. Four weeks from now I’ll be facing down some red-faced cracker two heartbeats from a stroke shouting the same talking points into my face. These guys; Sean Hannity, Jay Sekulow, etc. do a real disservice to our democracy.

          • I appreciate you taking a fair look at it and I agree, it will be up to the courts. However they decide there will be some upset people, but hopefully we can just move on from there.

  23. “The reason there are more cases of COVID is only because they are doing more testing!” is analogous to “The reason there are more votes for Biden is only because they are doing more counting!”

  24. Well, the Supreme Court stepped in to order PA ballots received after Election Day to be kept separate. Looks like Bush/Gore redux.